That’s super helpful, wish I had thought of that but using this all as a learning experience. This pair is the least volatile of the five, with SPXL moving an average of +/-1.7% per day since 2012. In the broadest sense, leveraged ETFs underperform because the market resets at the end of each trading day and 3x ETF performance is based on the daily move of its 1x counterpart and not that ETF's absolute share value. Now, which type of trading pattern is more common? on Stockchase. Days Until Specified Underperformance = {[6049 - (72,655 x Average Daily Volatility)] x Underperformance Threshold}+6. Hold Signal Direction. Third on the list is the oil sector and the 1x ETF, the United States Oil Fund (USO) and the 3x VelocityShares Oil Bull ETN (UWT). Provided the underlying 1x ETF goes up every single day, the leveraged product will accelerate its gains as time goes by and outperform its 3x predicted performance. It doesn't appear in any feeds, and anyone with a direct link to it will see a message like this one. After each calculation, the program assigns a buy, sell or hold value for each study, depending on where the price lies in reference to the common interpretation of the study. The Opinions takes up to 5 years' worth of historical data and runs these prices through thirteen different technical indicators. Figure 3 below similarly plots this 1x hypothetical ETF and compares it to the predicted performance of the leveraged ETF and the observed performance of the leveraged product. 0 analysts Figure 6: Number of days that it takes 15 of the top 3X ETFs to underperform by 5% based on Equation 1 [Source: YahooFinance Historical Data]. Now consider another 1x ETF that also opens at $100/share and falls to $99/share on one day and then rises to $100/share on the next day. Read the latest stock experts ratings for Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares. 1 analyst If you get a day when the commodity is down 30% of this ETF is wiped out. Equation 2 below includes a second variable where you can enter your own underperformance threshold. Results are interpreted as buy, sell or hold signals, each with numeric ratings and summarized with an overall percentage buy or sell rating. Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares. Since 2012, UWT has moved an average of +/-4.8% per day and underperformed USO by -3.2% at 120 days. The Last Price shown is the last trade price at the time the quote page was displayed, and will not update every 10 seconds (as the Last Price at the top of the Quote page does). Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. ETF data provided by Lipper. Macroaxis provides Direxion Daily buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding JNUG positions. Similarly, a sell signal with a "strongest" direction is becoming stronger. Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. DO NOT PLAY LEVERAGED ETFs! The table groups the 13 indicators based on Short, Medium, and Long Term time frames. This widget shows how the overall Barchart Opinion has changed over the last 3 periods (yesterday, last week and last month). If the total is greater than zero, then this is a "Buy". Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. problem with the site, feel free to email us at : Over the next 52 weeks, Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 2X ETF has on average historically fallen by 1.8 % based on the past 6 years of stock performance. The signal strength is a long-term measurement of the strength of the signal compared to the strength of the signal over the past 200-trading sessions. 3X ETFs are a great boon for day- and swing-traders due to large day-to-day moves. Since 2012, JNUG moved an average of +/-7.3% per day and underperformed GDXJ by a huge 16.0% at 120 days. If, instead, SPXL only rose 9%, the underperformance would be said to be 3%. 3x ETF leverage-induced decay arises due to more than just average daily variation. The Opinions takes up to 5 years' worth of historical data and runs these prices through thirteen different technical indicators. Read stock experts’ recommendations Only UWT fell slightly off-line. It’s hard to see big red numbers and sit back and wait. The overall indicator is a composite of all 13 studies listed on the page. This represents the average of the 13 popular indicators detailed in the table below. For every JNUG circa 2016, there are probably 10 UGAZ 2016-2017s. The 1x VanEck Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) was compared to the 3x Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners ETF (JNUG). By increasing the daily move from $1/day to $2/day, the underperformance of the 3x ETF versus its predicted performance increases exponentially from 9% to a whopping 31%. However, such an underperformance might be less of a concern for JNUG which can easily move over 100% over the course of a year and this loss might be worth it for the added volatility. Free ratings, analyses, holdings, benchmarks, quotes, and news. While stocks and ETFs may experience quick spikes, over an extended period of time, the vast majority trade much more wave-like with upturns and downturns rather than continuous movement in a single direction. The site may not work properly if you don't, If you do not update your browser, we suggest you visit, Press J to jump to the feed. Looking for Barchart Legacy Opinions? Each of the 13 indicators also have a Strength reading, and can be one of the following: A hold signal does not have any strength. If the total is zero, then this is a "Hold". Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.